The capital market is likely to be strong soon



Mahfuzul Islam, Senior Correspondent, Barta24.com
Photo: Barta24.com

Photo: Barta24.com

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Dhaka (Barta24.com): After four months of fall the capital market is likely to be strong by six issues, as observed by the investors and market concerned.

They said, the increase of the capacity investment of the banks enlisted in the capital market, loan to the affected investors on simple condition and provisions of incentives in the next budget by the government. This good news will remove the lack of confidence among the investors. The liquidity crisis will also minimize. It will increase positive impact.

President of DSE brokers association and the former president of DSE Shakil Rizvi told Barta 24.com several initiatives have ben taken by the government. We hope that the capital market will improve.

Former President of Bangladesh Merchant Bankers Association Saidur Rahman told Barta24.com the exposer of the banks have been enhanced along with rescheduling the default loans. This will increase the earnings of the banks. The profit will increase. This will help the banks’ capacity to invest in the stock market. The shareholders will also get their profit share. Moreover in the next budget some positive decisions are coming. So I think that in near future it will create positive impact in the capital market. 

Investor Abdur Razzak told Barta24.com the circular published on last Thursday regarding exposer has brought the capacity of the banks to invest 5 thousand crores. If the banks invest then the capital market automatically gets stronger. Because the banking sector contributes 30 percent of the total capital market.

Like Abdur Razzak about 28.5 lakh investors hope that the capital market will be strong from Sunday(May 19.

According to the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited(CDBL) there are a total 28 lakh 47 thousand 564 BO account holders in DSE and CSE. These investors incurred a loss of more than 60 thousand crores during the price fall beginning from January 27. Of the total 30 thousand crores of DSE and 321 thousand crores of CSE was lost. The demonstrators came down on the streets and staged demonstrations on several occasions. It went to the notice of the Prime Minister who instructed the concerned to take immediate actions to save the investors. At the Prime Ministers instruction a set of steps were taken and now those steps are in implementing process.

Initiative to increase the capacity of ICB

The 856 crores earned by ICB from the investors as interest shall be reused now. The duration of the fund has been increased to 31st December of 2022 from 32st December of 2019.

IPO and Placement stopped

At the demand of the stakeholders no IPO application will be accepted by BSEC. The controlling authority has also taken initiatives to amend the public issue, 2015. No IPO application will be entertained from April 30 of the current year. However the IPOs submitted by some companies those will be scrutinized by the existing law.

Time of Lock in increased

BSEC has taken decision to increase thetime of Lock in to minimize the pressure on the new companies. Earlier the lock in counting began from the date of prospectus issue now it will begin from the date of first transaction. Because of this change the counting time of VFS Thread dying, ML dying, Indo-Bangla Pharma, Silva Pharmaceuticals, Cuttally Textile, SS steel, Square knit composite and Jenex Infosis have been extended.

Strict on maintaining 2 percent and joint 30 percent shares

A notification has been issued on the existing law regarding IPO, placement, IPO followed bonus share and the shares of the entrepreneurs and directors individually 2 percent and jointly 30 percent. They must fulfill the conditions within next 15 days.

Besides, more incentives are coming in the budget.

   

3 mega projects are changing the thorough landscape of fuel oil transportation



Serajul Islam Siraj, Special Correspondent, Barta24.com, Dhaka
Photo: Collected

Photo: Collected

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Three mega projects are going to change the thorough landscape of fuel oil transportation in Bangladesh. The three mega projects are SPM (Single Point Mooring), Bangladesh-India Friendship Pipeline Project and Dhaka-Chattogram Pipeline Project.

Among these, SPM (Single Point Mooring) and Bangladesh-India Friendship Pipeline have already come into operation. And the Dhaka-Chattogram pipeline is going to be completed this year, said a source in the ministry.

Now the consumer does not have to go through many roads to reach the fuel oil. Again, the supply of fuel oil will be dependable even in rain and clouds or hartal, strike. Not only is uninterrupted supply guaranteed, but one SPM will save at least Tk. 1000 Crores annually! Fuel oil system loss will also be reduced.

For this reason, SPM with double pipeline has been installed at Maheshkhali in Cox's Bazar. So far imported fuel oil ships used to anchor in deep sea. From there it took 11, 12 days to reach the refinery tank by lighter ship. Being SPM, it will take only 48 hours to transport the same amount of oil. This eliminates the waiting charges of the mother vessel and the transportation cost of the lighterage vessel.

A floating buoy is placed in the deep sea southwest of Maheshkhali Island. From that buoy, two separate 36-inch diameter pipelines run through the ocean floor to the storage tank terminal for a crude oil circulation. Diesel transport operations have already started successfully with another.

The mother vessel will anchor in the deep sea. From there, the oil will reach Chattogram's main fuel oil facility in a few hours through the pipeline.

Minister of State for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid said that SPM (Single Point Mooring) will make an effective contribution to make fuel oil management cost-effective and sustainable. If the project is launched, it will save Tk. 1 thousand crore annually.

He said, under the project, 6 large storage tanks have been built along the 220 km pipeline through which the oil storage capacity of Bangladesh has reached a new height.

SPM Project Director Sharif Hasnat told Barta24.com, "It takes at least 11 days to unload oil from a big ship. Sometimes it takes more time to release this oil. Especially if the sea becomes rough then delivery becomes uncertain. Penalties sometimes took longer than agreed with ship-owners. With the implementation of the SPM project, it will be possible to release diesel and crude oil in 28 to 48 hours. On the one hand, the ship fare will be reduced; on the other hand, it will be possible to prevent system loss and various types of theft in oil transportation.

Bangladesh does not produce fuel oil. As much as 40 percent of gasoline and octane supply comes from condensate from gas fields. A large amount of diesel and other products are imported. A large amount of fuel is imported, by river. But due to the lack of navigation in the river ports, big ships cannot enter the port. That is why we have to rely on lighterage ships.

Oil is brought from the mother vessel by lighter or smaller vessels, to the BPC (Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation) depot.

From BPC, the oil is again transported by ship to different parts of the country. In particular, oil has to go through various hurdles to reach by rail wagons and tankers. The matter was time-consuming and dependent on many factors. There, too, the wind of change is beginning to be felt.

Finally, the Dhaka-Chattogram oil pipeline is almost complete. Although the pre-survey was completed in 2017, the project could not go ahead due to various reasons.

Under this project financed by Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC), Dhaka-Chattagram 237 km, 59 km from Cumilla to Chandpur, 8.5 km from Fatulla to Godnail depot will be laid. BPC expects to save Tk. 65 crore in transportation cost annually if the pipeline is commissioned.

Under the project, construction of 237 km pipeline has been completed. Now the finishing work of Chattogram Detchpass Terminal and Fatulla in Narayanganj is going on. The Division of Energy and Mineral Resources is hopeful of commissioning the pipeline before December.

On the other hand, the energy transport system of the northern region, famous for its granaries, was very complex and multi-channel, hand-twisting. Oil was taken by lighterage. Also tank lorry, another route is to reach by railway. Now there is also a change, the Bangladesh-India Friendship Pipeline.

The India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline construction project was undertaken in 2018 to provide uninterrupted, fast and cost-effective energy supply to 16 districts in the northern part of the country. The construction period of 131.5 km pipe line at a cost of Tk. 3,623 crore was till June 2023. The pipeline is said to have been commissioned ahead of schedule.

Due to this pipeline extending from India's Numaligarh to Bangladesh's Parbatipur depot, the northern region will increase its fuel storage capacity by an additional 29 thousand metric tons per day. It will be possible to easily supply fuel to power plants, supply oil to 16 districts of the northern region at a low cost and in the fastest way due to this pipeline. 

;

‘Digitization actual progress doesn't align with the loud drumbeats of publicity’



Ashraful Islam, Planning Editor, Barta24.com
Photo: Barta24.com

Photo: Barta24.com

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Eminent economist Dr. Birupaksha Paul remarked that despite the considerable hype surrounding digitization, progress has not matched expectations. He pointed out that Bangladesh trails behind India in this domain and even lags behind Nepal in terms of internet access. Dr. Paul emphasized that the actual progress doesn't align with the loud drumbeats of publicity.

Dr. Birupaksha Paul, an economics professor at the State University of New York and former chief economist of Bangladesh Bank, asserts that Bangladesh's macroeconomic development hinges on knowledge integration preceding economic integration. He further emphasizes that the appointment of a knowledgeable or innovative individual as the head of a financial institution is crucial, as failure to do so may lead to bureaucratic processes dominating decision-making.

In a recent exclusive interview with Barta24.com, Dr. Paul addressed various contemporary issues within Bangladesh's financial sector. The second part of the interview focused on topics such as leadership within top financial institutions, the inclusion of marginalized individuals in financial activities, the risks associated with digitization in the financial sector, and strategies for transitioning. The interview was conducted by Ashraful Islam, Planning Editor of Barta24.com.

Barta24.com: When discussing leadership within the country's top financial institutions amidst the era of technological dominance, what aspect should be given serious consideration?

Birupaksha Paul: During my tenure at Bangladesh Bank, Governor Dr. Atiur Rahman championed a modern, digitally-driven approach. He believed that modern technology has the power to empower the poor, citing examples such as farmers using cellphones to sell produce and access market information. This empowerment extends from digitization to both financial and physical inclusion. Dr. Atiur Rahman's visionary leadership led Bangladesh Bank to receive prestigious awards such as the Green Bank and Digitalized Bank accolades. While awards are not the sole measure of success, they signify the strides made under his tenure.

Unlike some instances where awards didn't correlate with economic performance, Bangladesh Bank's recognitions reflected genuine achievements. Anecdotes about Dr. Rahman's determination, such as his reaction to seeing towering files at a bank, highlight his commitment to modernizing processes. It underscores his proactive approach to addressing challenges and driving innovation within the financial sector. Indeed, passion is crucial. A bureaucrat might simply follow protocol, focusing on the contents of circulars rather than envisioning transformative change. Conversely, when an innovative leader takes the helm, significant shifts occur. This phenomenon is evident globally. Failure to appoint a knowledgeable or innovative individual to lead institutions like Bangladesh Bank may result in bureaucratic stagnation rather than progress.

Barta24.com: Tell us about your experience as Chief Economist of Bangladesh Bank.

Birupaksha Paul: I teach in the United States, where modern advancements, including the integration of artificial intelligence, are embraced. Bringing these ideas and practices to Bangladesh was successful, as they resonated with the leadership at the time, particularly with Governor Dr. Atiur Rahman. Despite not being from a bureaucratic background myself, our shared forward-thinking mindset facilitated a strong partnership. Dr. Rahman's non-bureaucratic background further enhanced our compatibility in driving innovative changes within Bangladesh Bank. It seems that Dr. Rahman may have encountered unexpected challenges, possibly related to international digitization. Despite his best efforts, such as modernizing Bangladesh Bank, he faced setbacks, including potential cyber threats. However, it's essential to recognize that not all his actions should be deemed failures because of these challenges. While the current situation might be calmer, it underscores the complexities and risks inherent in navigating the digital landscape.

Barta24.com: The recent stagnation in Bangladesh's progress on the Financial Inclusion Index contrasts with the rapid advancements observed previously.

Birupaksha Paul: There was optimism about the country's economic position, prompting discussions, including with Bangladesh Bank, about the potential for issuing credit cards to stimulate consumption. However, despite initial considerations, this proposal did not materialize. While other nations have implemented similar measures for higher-income individuals, the idea faced obstacles in Bangladesh and was ultimately not implemented. Sajeeb Wazed Joy, as the son of the current Prime Minister and her ICT advisor, possesses a strong drive and understanding of the new generation. He advocates for digitization as a means to achieve greater societal inclusion. However, despite the hype surrounding digitization efforts, Bangladesh still lags behind India in this regard and even trails countries like Nepal in terms of internet access. Despite the increasing noise, tangible progress remains elusive, a sentiment echoed by practical experience.

Barta24.com: The digital system has played a significant role in integrating marginalized individuals into Bangladesh's economy through financial activities. Can you share more about your experience with this?

Birupaksha Paul: The digital system is indeed making a significant contribution to the financial empowerment of marginalized individuals by providing them with access to financial services. With everything accessible on a single phone, individuals can easily access information such as current reserves and currency rates. However, despite these advancements, inclusive banking remains essential for fostering an inclusive economy. Unlike in some countries where even elderly individuals can buy stocks from home, Bangladesh's capital market still lacks such accessibility and development.

Indeed, finance comprises two key sectors: banking and capital markets. Unlike in America, where significant development has occurred in both sectors, in European and subcontinental countries, if the banking system fails to be inclusive, it may become exclusive, benefiting only a select few. This exclusivity undermines the creation of a truly inclusive economy. Evidence suggests that despite advancements, a significant portion of deposits is dominated by the wealthy, indicating a lack of inclusivity. It's disheartening that 47% of adults remain unbanked. Regarding Dr. Atiur Rahman's efforts, criticism is not uncommon, even in developed nations. For instance, President Obama faced ridicule for his push for universal health insurance, often mocked as "Obama care."

However, as President Clinton noted, there's nothing ironic about providing compassion through such initiatives. Similarly, criticisms were voiced regarding the concept of the 10 taka account, with some arguing that it failed to truly integrate farmers and marginalized individuals into the banking system. Instead, it left half of the population excluded from banking services, highlighting the lack of inclusivity in both banking and credit distribution.

The focus should be on ensuring equitable access to finance and banking services, as some individuals continue to amass significant wealth while many others remain underserved. The discriminatory distribution of credit prevents individuals, such as those starting small businesses like bakeries, from accessing the necessary loan support. This lack of inclusive credit distribution hinders our society's progression towards truly inclusive economic growth. The slowdown in growth, from 8 percent to 5 percent, reflects this challenge. Achieving robust economic growth requires an inclusive approach that supports and empowers all segments of society.

Barta24.com: How can the crisis be overcome?

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: Implementing reforms in the economy is crucial to inject fresh momentum. While the banking sector has traditionally held significant importance, recent remarks by economist Wahiduddin Mahmud describe it as "bleeding in the heart." However, it's essential to recognize that the heart of the issue lies within two sectors: banking and the capital market. The deficiencies in the capital market, coupled with a lack of accountability for wrongdoing, have eroded public confidence in it. The perpetrators of financial misconduct typically avoid the capital market due to its transparency requirements, such as holding annual general meetings (AGMs) and being accountable to shareholders. These structures foster accountability and development within the corporate sector.

However, within the banking sector, accountability is often lacking. Depositors and borrowers remain disconnected, with no direct accountability between them. Without reforms in these areas, such as enhancing accountability and transparency within banks, our growth prospects will be severely hindered.

Barta24.com: What risks do you foresee in the digitalization of the financial sector?

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: Firstly, it's crucial to recognize that technology knows no boundaries; it operates on a global scale. As such, Bangladesh must be prepared to manage its share of global risks. Just as universities understand the risks inherent in their work and invest in protections, countries like the United States also allocate significant resources to combat hackers and ensure cybersecurity. Similarly, investing in anti-piracy measures is essential for safeguarding ships. Unfortunately, this level of preparedness is often overlooked in Bangladesh, leading to vulnerabilities.

The recent incident involving the theft from Bangladesh Bank's reserves tarnished the reputation of esteemed individuals like Atiur Rahman. Some bureaucrats may argue that academics are ill-suited for such roles, but examples from around the world, particularly in the United States, demonstrate the positive contributions academics can make. Individuals like Bendamon, recruited from institutions like Princeton and Harvard, have held key positions in Bangladesh's central bank and government, highlighting the importance of appointing knowledgeable individuals to lead.

Companies often appoint CEOs and MDs based on their expertise and global experience, as demonstrated by many Indians leading American companies. However, in Bangladesh, we face challenges in finding qualified individuals due to a focus on loyalty over merit. Without proper protection and forward-thinking leadership, we fail to address critical issues such as environmental sustainability and urban planning. While Bangladesh struggles with a maze of wires and cluttered cities, Singapore exemplifies orderliness and strict regulations.

For instance, chewing gum is banned in Singapore, and the country has swift justice for drug offenses. Failing to prioritize such aspects can impede long-term growth and prosperity. During our period of high growth, countries like India experienced impressive economic expansion, with experts like Kaushik Bose describing India as a "sweet spot." While we may not need to emulate every aspect of India's economic model, there's value in adopting successful strategies. Despite India's size and complexity, smaller nations like Bangladesh have the advantage of agility and can implement reforms quickly. Just as Singapore surpassed Malaysia by leveraging its strengths, Bangladesh has untapped opportunities to enhance efficiency and inclusivity through initiatives like digitizing land records and expanding financial inclusion.

Such measures can mitigate injustices and improve access to information. However, challenges persist, as illustrated by the story of a villager who lost access to government funds after losing their phone. Without adequate safeguards in place, vulnerable individuals face hardships. Just as the proliferation of liquor stores in Europe led to an increase in funeral homes, our society must prioritize long-term planning and compassion to address systemic issues and ensure a brighter future for all.

Barta24.com: Many attribute the hacking incident at Bangladesh Bank to the vulnerabilities associated with digitization. Should we reconsider our approach to digitization in light of this assessment?

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: It's concerning that while we invest in various packages from Neelkhet, we neglect to prioritize purchasing antivirus software. The amount stolen by hackers, around 660-664 crores, is significant, but it pales in comparison to the larger sums that flow through banks daily. During Dr. Atiur Rahman's tenure, defaults amounted to 60 thousand crore taka, but under current circumstances, it has escalated to one and a half lakh crore taka. It appears that some bureaucrats are exaggerating the impact of the hacking incident. Due to the hacking incident being discussed in a New York court and delays in the CID of Bangladesh submitting its report, the truth behind the matter remains obscured. This delay has created a situation where individuals either face unwarranted blame and consequences or evade accountability altogether. It's crucial to identify those responsible and address any underlying issues contributing to these delays. If Bangabandhu's daughter hadn't come to power and prolonged the trial, it might not have happened at all. While there's an ongoing international process regarding the money stolen by hackers, it's imperative to ensure that capable individuals lead the efforts.

Loyalty alone should not be the criteria for appointing individuals, as it can sometimes overshadow other important qualities such as morals and academic skills. There's a cautionary tale about the dangers of blind loyalty, illustrated by the story of a pet monkey overzealously trying to eliminate mosquitoes and accidentally harming the king. Leadership positions in institutions like Bangladesh Bank should be filled based on merit, not just ranking. It's concerning that Bangladesh has been singled out for corruption rankings among 190 countries worldwide. While some may attribute this to conspiracy theories, it's crucial to focus on accountability rather than deflecting responsibility. Introducing a culture of ethical conduct and knowledge-based decision-making is essential in such institutions. Prioritizing knowledge inclusion is crucial before achieving financial inclusion, ensuring that our talented individuals remain in the country and are incentivized to contribute to its growth. Additionally, measures should be taken to encourage talented individuals abroad to return and contribute to the nation's development.

Unfortunately, there's a tendency among some to adopt a "third class railway passenger" mentality, where individuals resist others from advancing, akin to blocking the train's doorway and preventing others from boarding. This mindset hampers progress and must be addressed to foster a more inclusive and collaborative society.

Barta24.com: Are we considering moving away from digitization due to concerns about hacking?

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: In Bangladesh, when weavers lose their jobs due to mechanization, they often accept it without protest, even though the machines continue to operate. In contrast, in America, I've observed efficient systems where artificial intelligence scans customers at multiple counters simultaneously. However, some may resist technological advancements, akin to the mentality of "Nandalal" or "Devdas," clinging to the past rather than embracing change. Regarding the Padma Bridge project, while there's genuine concern for those affected by its construction, sailors must also adapt to evolving circumstances and consider transitioning to other professions. This reflects the inevitability of change in the world.

Edited by: Mahmood Menon, Editor-at-large, Barta24.com

;

Digitization actual progress doesn't align with the loud drumbeats of publicity, says Dr. Birupaksha Paul



Ashraful Islam, Planning Editor, Barta24.com
Photo: Barta24.com

Photo: Barta24.com

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Eminent economist Dr. Birupaksha Paul remarked that despite the considerable hype surrounding digitization, progress has not matched expectations. He pointed out that Bangladesh trails behind India in this domain and even lags behind Nepal in terms of internet access. Dr. Paul emphasized that the actual progress doesn't align with the loud drumbeats of publicity. 

Dr. Birupaksha Paul, an economics professor at the State University of New York and former chief economist of Bangladesh Bank, asserts that Bangladesh's macroeconomic development hinges on knowledge integration preceding economic integration. He further emphasizes that the appointment of a knowledgeable or innovative individual as the head of a financial institution is crucial, as failure to do so may lead to bureaucratic processes dominating decision-making. 

In a recent exclusive interview with Barta24.com, Dr. Paul addressed various contemporary issues within Bangladesh's financial sector. The second part of the interview focused on topics such as leadership within top financial institutions, the inclusion of marginalized individuals in financial activities, the risks associated with digitization in the financial sector, and strategies for transitioning. The interview was conducted by Ashraful Islam, Planning Editor of Barta24.com. 

Barta24.com: When discussing leadership within the country's top financial institutions amidst the era of technological dominance, what aspect should be given serious consideration? 

Birupaksha Paul: During my tenure at Bangladesh Bank, Governor Dr. Atiur Rahman championed a modern, digitally-driven approach. He believed that modern technology has the power to empower the poor, citing examples such as farmers using cellphones to sell produce and access market information. This empowerment extends from digitization to both financial and physical inclusion. Dr. Atiur Rahman's visionary leadership led Bangladesh Bank to receive prestigious awards such as the Green Bank and Digitalized Bank accolades. While awards are not the sole measure of success, they signify the strides made under his tenure. 

Unlike some instances where awards didn't correlate with economic performance, Bangladesh Bank's recognitions reflected genuine achievements. Anecdotes about Dr. Rahman's determination, such as his reaction to seeing towering files at a bank, highlight his commitment to modernizing processes. It underscores his proactive approach to addressing challenges and driving innovation within the financial sector. Indeed, passion is crucial. A bureaucrat might simply follow protocol, focusing on the contents of circulars rather than envisioning transformative change. Conversely, when an innovative leader takes the helm, significant shifts occur. This phenomenon is evident globally. Failure to appoint a knowledgeable or innovative individual to lead institutions like Bangladesh Bank may result in bureaucratic stagnation rather than progress.

Barta24.com: Tell us about your experience as Chief Economist of Bangladesh Bank.

Birupaksha Paul: I teach in the United States, where modern advancements, including the integration of artificial intelligence, are embraced. Bringing these ideas and practices to Bangladesh was successful, as they resonated with the leadership at the time, particularly with Governor Dr. Atiur Rahman. Despite not being from a bureaucratic background myself, our shared forward-thinking mindset facilitated a strong partnership. Dr. Rahman's non-bureaucratic background further enhanced our compatibility in driving innovative changes within Bangladesh Bank. It seems that Dr. Rahman may have encountered unexpected challenges, possibly related to international digitization. Despite his best efforts, such as modernizing Bangladesh Bank, he faced setbacks, including potential cyber threats. However, it's essential to recognize that not all his actions should be deemed failures because of these challenges. While the current situation might be calmer, it underscores the complexities and risks inherent in navigating the digital landscape.

Barta24.com: The recent stagnation in Bangladesh's progress on the Financial Inclusion Index contrasts with the rapid advancements observed previously. 

Birupaksha Paul: There was optimism about the country's economic position, prompting discussions, including with Bangladesh Bank, about the potential for issuing credit cards to stimulate consumption. However, despite initial considerations, this proposal did not materialize. While other nations have implemented similar measures for higher-income individuals, the idea faced obstacles in Bangladesh and was ultimately not implemented. Sajeeb Wazed Joy, as the son of the current Prime Minister and her ICT advisor, possesses a strong drive and understanding of the new generation. He advocates for digitization as a means to achieve greater societal inclusion. However, despite the hype surrounding digitization efforts, Bangladesh still lags behind India in this regard and even trails countries like Nepal in terms of internet access. Despite the increasing noise, tangible progress remains elusive, a sentiment echoed by practical experience.

Barta24.com: The digital system has played a significant role in integrating marginalized individuals into Bangladesh's economy through financial activities. Can you share more about your experience with this? 

Birupaksha Paul: The digital system is indeed making a significant contribution to the financial empowerment of marginalized individuals by providing them with access to financial services. With everything accessible on a single phone, individuals can easily access information such as current reserves and currency rates. However, despite these advancements, inclusive banking remains essential for fostering an inclusive economy. Unlike in some countries where even elderly individuals can buy stocks from home, Bangladesh's capital market still lacks such accessibility and development. 

Indeed, finance comprises two key sectors: banking and capital markets. Unlike in America, where significant development has occurred in both sectors, in European and subcontinental countries, if the banking system fails to be inclusive, it may become exclusive, benefiting only a select few. This exclusivity undermines the creation of a truly inclusive economy. Evidence suggests that despite advancements, a significant portion of deposits is dominated by the wealthy, indicating a lack of inclusivity. It's disheartening that 47% of adults remain unbanked. Regarding Dr. Atiur Rahman's efforts, criticism is not uncommon, even in developed nations. For instance, President Obama faced ridicule for his push for universal health insurance, often mocked as "Obama care." 

However, as President Clinton noted, there's nothing ironic about providing compassion through such initiatives. Similarly, criticisms were voiced regarding the concept of the 10 taka account, with some arguing that it failed to truly integrate farmers and marginalized individuals into the banking system. Instead, it left half of the population excluded from banking services, highlighting the lack of inclusivity in both banking and credit distribution. 

The focus should be on ensuring equitable access to finance and banking services, as some individuals continue to amass significant wealth while many others remain underserved. The discriminatory distribution of credit prevents individuals, such as those starting small businesses like bakeries, from accessing the necessary loan support. This lack of inclusive credit distribution hinders our society's progression towards truly inclusive economic growth. The slowdown in growth, from 8 percent to 5 percent, reflects this challenge. Achieving robust economic growth requires an inclusive approach that supports and empowers all segments of society. 

Barta24.com: How can the crisis be overcome?

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: Implementing reforms in the economy is crucial to inject fresh momentum. While the banking sector has traditionally held significant importance, recent remarks by economist Wahiduddin Mahmud describe it as "bleeding in the heart." However, it's essential to recognize that the heart of the issue lies within two sectors: banking and the capital market. The deficiencies in the capital market, coupled with a lack of accountability for wrongdoing, have eroded public confidence in it. The perpetrators of financial misconduct typically avoid the capital market due to its transparency requirements, such as holding annual general meetings (AGMs) and being accountable to shareholders. These structures foster accountability and development within the corporate sector.

However, within the banking sector, accountability is often lacking. Depositors and borrowers remain disconnected, with no direct accountability between them. Without reforms in these areas, such as enhancing accountability and transparency within banks, our growth prospects will be severely hindered. 

Barta24.com: What risks do you foresee in the digitalization of the financial sector? 

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: Firstly, it's crucial to recognize that technology knows no boundaries; it operates on a global scale. As such, Bangladesh must be prepared to manage its share of global risks. Just as universities understand the risks inherent in their work and invest in protections, countries like the United States also allocate significant resources to combat hackers and ensure cybersecurity. Similarly, investing in anti-piracy measures is essential for safeguarding ships. Unfortunately, this level of preparedness is often overlooked in Bangladesh, leading to vulnerabilities. 

The recent incident involving the theft from Bangladesh Bank's reserves tarnished the reputation of esteemed individuals like Atiur Rahman. Some bureaucrats may argue that academics are ill-suited for such roles, but examples from around the world, particularly in the United States, demonstrate the positive contributions academics can make. Individuals like Bendamon, recruited from institutions like Princeton and Harvard, have held key positions in Bangladesh's central bank and government, highlighting the importance of appointing knowledgeable individuals to lead. 

Companies often appoint CEOs and MDs based on their expertise and global experience, as demonstrated by many Indians leading American companies. However, in Bangladesh, we face challenges in finding qualified individuals due to a focus on loyalty over merit. Without proper protection and forward-thinking leadership, we fail to address critical issues such as environmental sustainability and urban planning. While Bangladesh struggles with a maze of wires and cluttered cities, Singapore exemplifies orderliness and strict regulations. 

For instance, chewing gum is banned in Singapore, and the country has swift justice for drug offenses. Failing to prioritize such aspects can impede long-term growth and prosperity. During our period of high growth, countries like India experienced impressive economic expansion, with experts like Kaushik Bose describing India as a "sweet spot." While we may not need to emulate every aspect of India's economic model, there's value in adopting successful strategies. Despite India's size and complexity, smaller nations like Bangladesh have the advantage of agility and can implement reforms quickly. Just as Singapore surpassed Malaysia by leveraging its strengths, Bangladesh has untapped opportunities to enhance efficiency and inclusivity through initiatives like digitizing land records and expanding financial inclusion. 

Such measures can mitigate injustices and improve access to information. However, challenges persist, as illustrated by the story of a villager who lost access to government funds after losing their phone. Without adequate safeguards in place, vulnerable individuals face hardships. Just as the proliferation of liquor stores in Europe led to an increase in funeral homes, our society must prioritize long-term planning and compassion to address systemic issues and ensure a brighter future for all. 

Barta24.com: Many attribute the hacking incident at Bangladesh Bank to the vulnerabilities associated with digitization. Should we reconsider our approach to digitization in light of this assessment? 

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: It's concerning that while we invest in various packages from Neelkhet, we neglect to prioritize purchasing antivirus software. The amount stolen by hackers, around 660-664 crores, is significant, but it pales in comparison to the larger sums that flow through banks daily. During Dr. Atiur Rahman's tenure, defaults amounted to 60 thousand crore taka, but under current circumstances, it has escalated to one and a half lakh crore taka. It appears that some bureaucrats are exaggerating the impact of the hacking incident. Due to the hacking incident being discussed in a New York court and delays in the CID of Bangladesh submitting its report, the truth behind the matter remains obscured. This delay has created a situation where individuals either face unwarranted blame and consequences or evade accountability altogether. It's crucial to identify those responsible and address any underlying issues contributing to these delays. If Bangabandhu's daughter hadn't come to power and prolonged the trial, it might not have happened at all. While there's an ongoing international process regarding the money stolen by hackers, it's imperative to ensure that capable individuals lead the efforts. 

Loyalty alone should not be the criteria for appointing individuals, as it can sometimes overshadow other important qualities such as morals and academic skills. There's a cautionary tale about the dangers of blind loyalty, illustrated by the story of a pet monkey overzealously trying to eliminate mosquitoes and accidentally harming the king. 
Leadership positions in institutions like Bangladesh Bank should be filled based on merit, not just ranking. It's concerning that Bangladesh has been singled out for corruption rankings among 190 countries worldwide. While some may attribute this to conspiracy theories, it's crucial to focus on accountability rather than deflecting responsibility. Introducing a culture of ethical conduct and knowledge-based decision-making is essential in such institutions. Prioritizing knowledge inclusion is crucial before achieving financial inclusion, ensuring that our talented individuals remain in the country and are incentivized to contribute to its growth. Additionally, measures should be taken to encourage talented individuals abroad to return and contribute to the nation's development. 

Unfortunately, there's a tendency among some to adopt a "third class railway passenger" mentality, where individuals resist others from advancing, akin to blocking the train's doorway and preventing others from boarding. This mindset hampers progress and must be addressed to foster a more inclusive and collaborative society. 

Barta24.com: Are we considering moving away from digitization due to concerns about hacking?

Dr. Birupaksha Paull: In Bangladesh, when weavers lose their jobs due to mechanization, they often accept it without protest, even though the machines continue to operate. In contrast, in America, I've observed efficient systems where artificial intelligence scans customers at multiple counters simultaneously. However, some may resist technological advancements, akin to the mentality of "Nandalal" or "Devdas," clinging to the past rather than embracing change. Regarding the Padma Bridge project, while there's genuine concern for those affected by its construction, sailors must also adapt to evolving circumstances and consider transitioning to other professions. This reflects the inevitability of change in the world.

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‘Increased money velocity can transform Tk1 into Tk10’



Ashraful Islam, Planning Editor, Barta24.com, Dhaka
Photo: Barta24.com

Photo: Barta24.com

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Renowned economist Dr Birupaksha Paul emphasised the need to break the monopoly in the mobile financial service (MFS) sector in order to enhance the circulation of money.

He acknowledged the transformative impact of MFS providers like bKash and Nagad on the economy of Bangladesh but stressed that their monopolistic practices, which contribute to their significant profits, must be dismantled to promote greater velocity of money.

Birupaksha Paul, a former Chief Economist of Bangladesh Bank and Economics Professor at the State University of New York in Courtland, recently shared these insights in an exclusive interview with Barta24.com, focusing on contemporary issues within Bangladesh's financial sector.

The discussion encompassed the potential of digital technology in financial services, digital financing, remittances, and the assessment of current trends. Ashraful Islam, Planning Editor of Barta24.com, facilitated the conversation.

Dr Paul suggested that the development of the mobile financial service sector should strive to reach the level that the remittance sector has seen through its portrayal as a matter of public interest. He believes that this advancement will enhance the velocity of money, allowing a one-taka note to generate value equivalent to Tk10.

He also advocates for increased competition for the development of the mobile financial sector.

The first part of the interview with Birupaksha Paul unfolds as follows:

Barta24.com: Despite some negative feedback regarding digital financing technologies, they undeniably contribute to diversifying financial services. What's your take on this?

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: Absolutely, technology has played a pivotal role. Back when I was a university student, I recall a gentleman who used to deliver money orders in the afternoons. He'd hand over a portion of the amount upfront, keeping some as gratuity. People eagerly awaited his arrival for news of their money orders.

Back then, digital technology wasn't as prevalent. Now, platforms like 'bkash' and 'Nagad' have revolutionised the process. I even discussed this in an interview with The Economist. Today, even a rickshaw puller can easily send money to their relatives and notify them. However, the transaction costs remain high, which needs addressing. Ideally, these costs should be brought down to zero, exploring alternative means to benefit the MFS service providers.

Institutions like 'bKash' already generate revenue through advertisements on their platforms. The government may consider exploring alternative revenue streams for them.

If a common man is charged Tk20 for a transaction of Tk1000, it poses a difficulty for him. With that Tk20, he could purchase another essential product. Every taka matters, especially to the common man.

During my tenure at the Bangladesh Bank, 'bkash' dominated 85% of the mobile financing landscape before other competitors emerged.

In Bangladesh, once a monopoly is established, it tends to persist for a prolonged period. Conversely, abroad, creating a monopoly often faces numerous challenges. High Court intervention can break a monopoly, and court scrutiny is involved in potential mergers to prevent monopolistic outcomes.

Unlike many countries with robust Anti-Competition Commissions, our Competition Commission lacks visibility and effectiveness. It is often led by retired bureaucrats, which contributes to institutional weaknesses in innovation index rankings.

Barta24.com: Why hasn't the system developed for remittance been replicated in internal mobile financing?

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: Unlike expats, who don't incur extra costs when sending remittances, internal mobile financing lacks similar efficiency. To facilitate easier access to funds domestically, substantial agency support is crucial. Increasing the circulation of money, as advocated in the Quantity Theory of Money, strengthens the economy. By boosting monetisation and velocity, consumers can meet immediate needs and enhance overall satisfaction and social welfare.

Personal experiences highlight the swift transfer of funds, exemplifying the convenience and benefits of efficient financial services. For individuals like rickshaw pullers, who rely on timely transactions to support their families, these services provide invaluable consumer surplus. Ensuring timely access to funds can prevent tragic consequences, promoting safety and well-being within society.

Beyond economic benefits, these financial services offer psychological and welfare advantages, underlining their significance in enhancing inclusion and overall societal welfare. It's imperative to delve deeper into these topics to fully understand their impact and potential.

Barta24.com: How crucial will digital technology be in achieving the macroeconomic goal of transforming into a developed country by 2041?

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: Technological advancement is imperative for progress. We must assess our position in the Global Technology Index to gauge our advancement. Mere increases in per capita income do not guarantee development, as evidenced by cases like Yemen and Somalia, where sudden resource discoveries did not translate to overall development due to underlying societal issues. Development requires a multifaceted approach, encompassing education, societal values, and governance.

Enhancing social safety, promoting justice, and fostering empathy are vital components of progress. Amartya Sen highlights the importance of a free media in preventing famines and fostering accountability. Furthermore, advancements in information economics contribute to rational decision-making and expectations. Thus, digital technology serves as a catalyst for comprehensive development and societal progress.

Barta24.com: We're witnessing a political aspiration to transition into a developed country. How do you assess its feasibility?

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: Our esteemed Prime Minister envisions a developed country by 2041, displaying remarkable foresight and determination. Despite skepticism from engineers, she pressed forward with projects like the subway, illustrating her resolve. However, many advisers surrounding the prime minister provide her with incorrect advice and misinformation.

From an economic standpoint, the timeline for achieving developed status seems ambitious. Economic realities demand more than just political enthusiasm. While GDP growth is a crucial metric, it's not the sole indicator of development. Social indicators and values, depicted eloquently in Satyajit Ray's film "Jalsaghar," are equally significant. 

Sudden wealth doesn't equate to nobility or progress. True development requires investments in mental and physical health, education, and social welfare. Bangladesh faces various challenges, including environmental degradation and health crises like Covid-19. Prioritizing holistic development over solely economic gains is essential.

Relying solely on GDP and per capita income metrics is shortsighted. Recent devaluation has affected per capita income, necessitating a broader perspective on development beyond monetary figures. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive approach and a focus on sustainable growth, rather than quick fixes.

In striving for a better world, we must prioritize the beautification and strengthening of our institutions to foster trust and reliability. Whether it's visiting the passport office or dealing with agencies like Rajuk, the public should have confidence that their affairs will be handled efficiently and transparently. Despite progress, corruption remains a persistent issue, eroding our advancements and hindering growth.

Even amidst challenges like Covid-19, countries like the US have managed to sustain growth, demonstrating the importance of effective governance and institutional integrity. However, in Bangladesh, corruption has impeded our potential, leading to a decline in growth and enabling large-scale money laundering.

It's crucial to address institutional weaknesses and ensure consistency in policies to maximize the benefits of digitisation. Merely adopting technology without strengthening institutions risks empowering wrongdoers rather than benefiting society. We must focus on comprehensive reforms and prioritise the fight against corruption, shifting our focus from corruption indices to knowledge economy indices and innovation rankings.

These efforts will not only enhance financial inclusion but also empower the marginalised segments of society. Political rhetoric must be backed by sustained action, with a collective effort to address systemic issues. Just as in healthcare, where overall well-being is vital, a single weak link can compromise the entire system's performance. Therefore, holistic improvements across all sectors are imperative for sustainable progress and prosperity.

Barta24.com: How effectively have we harnessed the potential of digital technology in the financial services sector?

Dr. Birupaksha Paul: Access to capital is essential even for setting up small tea shops in villages. However, financial inclusion efforts have fallen short in providing access to credit, particularly for small businesses. Many NGOs attempt to address this gap, but challenges persist, including issues with fund allocation and financial architecture.

A critical aspect to consider is the balance between bonds and equity in financial institutions' balance sheets. Unfortunately, our financial regulations often hinder rather than facilitate inclusive practices. Diverse directorships in banks and financial institutions can bring valuable perspectives and ideas, yet we often lack diversity in leadership roles, which hampers innovation and inclusivity.

Contrary to international norms that value diversity, Bangladesh tends to favor homogeneity, whether in educational institutions or workplaces. This aversion to diversity undermines inclusion efforts and stifles creativity. Cultural biases and nepotism further exacerbate these challenges, hindering progress and effective decision-making.

Cultural shifts are necessary to embrace diversity and foster an environment of tolerance and acceptance. Without addressing these cultural barriers, achieving meaningful progress in financial inclusion and innovation will remain elusive. It's crucial to recognise and challenge these biases to create a more inclusive and dynamic financial sector.

While India has also seen the rise of wealthy individuals, their success is rooted in a corporate structure with contributions from various sectors, benefiting society at large. Recent achievements, such as the success of BATA, highlight the employment opportunities created by embracing diversity—whether cultural, religious, or gender-based.

The strength of America lies in its cultural and religious diversity, which fuels innovation and progress. Despite challenges, America's resilience stems from its knowledge-driven economy, as noted by economist David Romer. Unlike physical resources, knowledge yields endless possibilities, exemplified by the tech giants that consistently lift the country's economy.

However, progress must be genuine, not just rhetoric. True empowerment of the poor requires tangible actions, not just words. Sadly, our justice system often fails to hold the powerful accountable, allowing corruption to persist unchecked. The stark reality is that while small-time offenders face punishment, those responsible for massive financial crimes evade justice, further exacerbating inequality and injustice.

Edited by: Mahmood Menon, Editor-at-large, Barta24.com

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