A majority of 61.1 percent of Bangladeshis believe that the next national election should be held within a year. However, in response to another question, most people (65.9 percent) said that elections should be held only after the interim government has completed all the reforms it deems necessary. And 31.9 percent of respondents are in favor of holding elections only after completing urgent electoral reforms.
18.7 percent want elections within two to three years, and 8.6 percent want elections within 18 months. The lowest number, 5.8 percent, is in favor of holding the next national election after four years or more.
4.6 percent of people said they did not know how soon elections should be held, and 1.1 percent did not want to say anything about when elections should be held.
These data were revealed in the results of a survey in Bangladesh supervised by Voice of America Bangla.
After the Awami League government fell in the student-public uprising on August 5, the interim government came to power on August 8 with Dr. Muhammad Yunus as its chief adviser. Voice of America conducted a nationwide survey from October 13 to October 27 to find out how Bangladesh is doing after the interim government took office and what the citizens of the country think about these issues.
The survey was conducted by research and survey company ORG-Quest Research Limited under the editorial direction of Voice of America Bangla. The survey was conducted among 1,000 people aged 18 or above in eight divisions of the country through computer-assisted telephone interviewing based on a closed-end questionnaire prepared by Voice of America.
The survey was conducted using a random digital dialing method. The sample for the survey was taken from ORG-Quest Research Limited's own database made from all possible combinations of mobile phone numbers in Bangladesh. The sample was taken from the latest official telephone plan published by the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission in 2017. The sample for the survey was selected through simple random sampling (SRS) using an R-based program.
Voice of America said that the margin of error in the survey is 3.1 percent. Since the respondents to the survey gave their opinions about a month ago, the results of the survey may be different in many cases if conducted now.
Voice of America is going to publish a report on the results of this survey in several parts in the next few days. Today is the first part of it.
60.4 percent of the urban population and 61.4 percent of those living in villages who participated in the survey want the next national election within the next year. 57.3 percent of the male participants in the survey and 65 percent of the female participants want the election within the next year.
Among the young people (aged 18 to 34), 62.4 percent want the next election within the next year. And 59.8 percent of those aged 35 and above want the next national election within the next year.
18.9 percent of urban and 18.6 percent of rural respondents want the next national election to be held within the next two to three years. 20.3 percent of men and 17.1 percent of women surveyed said they would hold the next national election within two to three years. 15.2 percent of young people aged 18 to 34 and 22.4 percent of those aged 35 and above think the next election should be held within two to three years.
10.3 percent of urban respondents, 8 percent of rural respondents, 12 percent of men, 5.2 percent of women, 8.6 percent of young people (aged 18 to 34) and 8.6 percent of those aged 35 and above said they would hold the next election within 18 months.
6.2 percent of urban respondents, 5.7 percent of rural respondents, 6.9 percent of men, 4.8 percent of women, 7.6 percent of young people (aged 18 to 34) and 4 percent of those aged 35 and above said they would hold the election after four years or more.
Since the interim government took power in Bangladesh, various parties, including the BNP, one of the main political parties in Bangladesh, have been demanding the release of a roadmap for holding the next national parliamentary elections within a reasonable time.
The interim government has not yet announced any roadmap for the elections. According to them, the next national elections will be held only after the necessary reforms are quickly implemented to form a democratic state. Meanwhile, the Students' Movement against Discrimination, a platform of students leading the movement, said that if the elections are held before the state reforms are completed, what they call 'fascism' will reappear. They said that the mass uprising of ‘24 was not just for holding an election.
On September 23 (published on the 24th), the Bangladesh Army Chief said in an interview with Reuters that he had promised to support this government in completing important reforms so that elections can be held within the next 18 months.
In this regard, the Chief Adviser to the interim government, when Dr. Yunus was asked in a special interview with Voice of America, he said that the advisory council of the interim government will announce the date of the election.
In his address to the nation on the occasion of the 100th day of the government, Dr. Yunus said that once the decision on electoral reforms is made, the roadmap for the elections will be available very soon. The election train has started its journey, it will not stop. However, he commented that the elections may be delayed for a few months for the sake of reforms.
Asif Nazrul, the law adviser to the government, said on November 19 that elections will be held as soon as possible after completing some much-needed reforms.
In an interview with Bangladeshi daily Banik Barta on November 19 (published on November 20), Dr. Yunus said that he would hold elections soon if political parties did not want reforms.
In this context, discussions and debates are underway among political parties, civil society, businessmen, voters, development partner countries, the United Nations and other domestic and foreign stakeholders on when the next national elections will be held in Bangladesh.
Therefore, the Voice of America Bangla public opinion survey has given special importance to these two issues: reforms and the election roadmap.
65.9 percent want elections after completing all reforms.
In response to the question, "Do you think the interim government should hold elections after completing all the reforms it deems necessary or only after making urgent electoral reforms?", most people in the survey (65.9 percent) think that elections should be held after completing all the reforms it deems necessary. And 31.9 percent of respondents are in favor of holding elections after completing only urgent electoral reforms. 1.6 percent of respondents do not know anything about this and 0.5 percent refused to answer this question.
Most of those who think that the next national elections should be held after completing the reforms the interim government deems necessary, voted in favor of reforms related to the judiciary, constitution, economic sector, police, and the Election Commission.
Among them, 96.5 percent of respondents voted in favor of reforming the Election Commission. 92.3 percent of respondents voted in favor of police reform, 95.3 percent voted in favor of judicial reform, and 96.4 percent voted in favor of economic reform. 92.5 percent of respondents want constitutional reform.
When asked whether the interim government is doing better, worse, or the same in governing the country compared to the Awami League government, the majority of people think that the interim government is doing better in governing the country than the Awami League government. 58.4 percent of Bangladeshis think that the interim government is doing better in governing the country than the ousted Awami League government. However, a significant number of 40.5 percent of people think that the interim government is doing worse or the same in governing the country than the Awami League. Those who think that the interim government is doing worse in governing the country than the previous government are 20.4 percent, while 20.1 percent said that it is doing the same. 1.8 percent of those who participated in the survey said that they did not know and 1.3 percent refused to answer the question.
Respondents in urban areas (61.9 percent) were more likely to say that the interim government is doing a better job than those in rural areas (57.3 percent).
Male respondents (62 percent) were more likely to say that the interim government is doing a better job than their female counterparts (54.8 percent). Among young respondents (aged 18 to 34), 58.7 percent said that the interim government is doing a better job than the previous government, while 58.1 percent of respondents aged 35 and above said the same. According to 63.2 percent, the interim government is doing a better job than the previous government in controlling the law and order situation.
One of the areas where respondents believe the interim government is doing a better job is in controlling the law and order situation, which was one of the concerns of the new administration after the fall of the Awami League government on August 5.
In this context, the government granted the army the power of special executive magistrates on September 17. Although the situation later improved, the government extended the magisterial powers granted to the army for another two months on November 15.
However, the majority of respondents (63.2 percent) believe that the interim government is doing a better job of controlling the law and order situation than the Awami League government. 21.4 percent think it is worse now, and 14.5 percent think the law and order situation is the same under both governments.
Among the respondents, men (67 percent) are more likely than others to think that the interim government is doing a better job of controlling the law and order situation than the Awami League government. Among women, 59.4 percent think so. Among the young (18 to 34) and 63.7 percent of those aged 35 or above think that the interim government is more successful in controlling the law and order situation than the Awami League. And 64.6 percent of urban respondents and 62.7 percent of rural respondents expressed the same opinion.
However, this opinion of the respondents (63.2 percent) that the interim government is doing a better job of controlling the law and order situation than the previous government did not translate into a greater sense of public safety. Although almost half of the respondents (49.8 percent) feel that they are safer than before under the interim government, almost the same number of respondents (49.9 percent) said they felt more or the same safe under the Awami regime.
Almost half of the respondents (49.8 percent) feel that they are safer than before under the interim government. Almost the same number of respondents (49.9 percent) said they felt more or the same safe under the Awami regime.
During their own interim government, the number of respondents who feel safer than before is 23 percent, while 26.9 percent think they feel the same in terms of security under the two governments.
54.4 percent of urban respondents feel safer under the interim government than during the Awami League period, while 48.3 percent of rural respondents feel so. 52.1 percent of male respondents and 47.5 percent of female respondents feel safer during the interim government than during the previous government.
54.2 percent of respondents over 35 years of age and 45.7 percent of young people (18 to 34 years) said they feel safer during this period compared to the Awami League period.